"Our recent survey of 600 North Carolinians who have voted in past Republican primaries shows a close race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination between Fred Smith and Pat McCrory."


To: Jonathan Hill

From: Whit Ayres

Date: April 14, 2008

Subject: Survey Shows Close Race for N.C. Gubernatorial Nomination

 

Our recent survey of 600 North Carolinians who have voted in past Republican primaries shows a close race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination between Fred Smith and Pat McCrory.  This survey was conducted April 7, 8, and 10, 2008.  Highlights of the survey include:

1.     Both leading candidates have virtually identical name recognition and personal ratings.  Fred Smith's name is recognized by 69 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 45 to 6 percent.  Pat McCrory's name is recognized by 70 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 48 to 6 percent.  Bill Graham and Bob Orr trail significantly in both name recognition and ratings.  Graham's name is recognized by 58 percent, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 28 to 6 percent.  Orr's name is recognized by 55 percent, with a favorable to unfavorable rating of 22 to 5 percent.

2.     Comparable percentages of Republican primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about both Smith and McCrory.   Fifty-two percent of primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about Fred Smith, with 28 percent more likely to vote for him based on that information, and only 6 percent less likely.  Fifty-four percent of primary voters have seen, read, or heard something lately about Pat McCrory, with 26 percent more likely to vote for him based on that information, and 3 percent less likely.

3.     The gubernatorial ballot is effectively a two-man race, with both leading candidates in the 30s, and with one-quarter of the electorate still undecided.  On the ballot test, McCrory has 36 percent, Smith 30 percent, Graham 6 percent, Orr 5 percent, with 23 percent undecided.  Smith leads McCrory in the Asheville media market by 42 to 10 percent, in the Raleigh media market by 38 to 26 percent, and in the eastern media markets by 56 to 11 percent.  Smith also leads McCrory among rural voters, small town voters, and religious conservatives.

With three weeks to go, the Republican gubernatorial race is wide open.  Raising money is critical for the stretch run.  Whoever runs the best campaign between now and May 6 is likely to be the winner of the four-way contest. 

Methodology

Ayres, McHenry & Associates surveyed 600 registered voters throughout North Carolina on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday evenings, April 7, 8, and 10, 2008.  Respondents were selected randomly from a list of past Republican primary participants, and all voted in at least one statewide Republican primary in 2000, 2002, 2004, or 2006.  Calling quotas were established by county and gender based on past Republican primary turnout.  The margin of error for the statewide sample is ±4.0 percent.